College Football 25 simulation: Does Cam Rising’s reported return lift Utah past Arizona State?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah game against an FBS opponent this season.
Utah may be coming off a loss, but there’s excitement heading into the Utes’ matchup at Arizona State on Friday night after a report that quarterback Cam Rising will return to the field.
Could that be the catalyst for the Utes to beat the Sun Devils on the road on a short week?
Both teams come into the game with 4-1 records and are 1-1 in Big 12 play.
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Friday night’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and it stayed close throughout the game.
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80. That helped to create more realistic numbers.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.
The biggest depth chart adjustment was that Rising is reportedly going to start Friday’s game, according to Action Network’s Brett McMurphy, after missing the past 3.5 games due to an injury on his throwing hand.
With no clear indication on whether they’ll play, Karene Reid and Connor O’Toole were moved out of the lineup as they continue to nurse injuries.
Arizona State has a pair of defenders — linebacker Keyshaun Elliott and defensive lineman Clayton Smith — who will miss the first half of the contest because of targeting calls in the Sun Devils’ last game, but because it’s not possible to make depth chart moves in-game where there isn’t a human user controlling a team, I removed them for the entire simulation.
As for jerseys, Utah went with an all-white road look, while Arizona State is in all-maroon.
The actual score: Arizona 23, Utah 10
College Football 25 simulation final score: Utah 31, Arizona 17
My analysis: The simulation was far from being accurate in the Utes’ matchup with the Wildcats.
In the actual game, Utah struggled in the red zone and only scored 10 points while Isaac Wilson started his third straight game. That’s different from the simulation, where the Utes offense came up with multiple chunk plays and found success in the red zone.
Final score: Arizona State 24, Utah 17
Key sequence: With the Utes trailing by seven midway through the fourth quarter, they started a drive from their own 38 and moved the ball downfield with a nice mix of run and pass plays.
That drive included two fourth-down conversions — one a Micah Bernard 1-yard run on fourth and inches, and a Brant Kuithe 16-yard catch to get the Utes inside the red zone — but Utah again faced a fourth down at the ASU 12, needing three yards to extend the drive.
On the fourth-down play, Mike Mitchell took a delayed handoff and appeared to have the edge, but an Arizona State defender shook off his block and stopped Mitchell for a 2-yard gain with under four minutes to play.
Utah got the ball back late in the contest, but ran out of time to make another drive.
How the simulation transpired: It was a tight game throughout, though the Utes never led.
Arizona State got off to a fast start, scoring on its first two possessions.
The Sun Devils marched down the field quickly on their opening drive and scored on a 29-yard touchdown pass to Markeston Douglas, going ahead 7-0 midway through the first quarter.
Utah countered with a touchdown drive of its own, and a Money Parks 22-yard catch on third and four moved the Utes into ASU territory. Bernard converted a third and 2 on the ground to get Utah inside the 10, and then he capped the drive with a 2-yard touchdown drive with just over a minute left in the first quarter.
Arizona State’s second drive ended with a 35-yard field goal just over two minutes into the second quarter, though the Utah defense stood tall and got a stop on a third down and 8 at the Utes’ 19.
After a missed Cole Becker 49-yard field goal attempt on Utah’s next possession, Logan Fano came up with the first sack of the day on Arizona State’s ensuing drive, forcing a punt.
Becker then had the chance to redeem himself, hitting a 55-yarder with a minute and a half to play in the first half to knot the score at 10-10.
The Sun Devils, though, controlled the third quarter from the start — Arizona State’s Raleek Brown returned the kickoff to begin the second half 97 yards for a touchdown to put the Sun Devils back out in front.
Utah took some time to recover from that and went three and out on its ensuing possession, then ASU used another quick drive to go up 24-10 on an 18-yard touchdown pass to Melquan Stovall midway through the quarter.
The touchdown came on third down and 16, after a Van Fillinger sack set up the third and long, but a breakdown in the secondary led to the score.
The Utes responded before the end of the third quarter, taking their next drive for a touchdown. Bernard ripped off a 9-yard run to the ASU 34, and Landen King caught a 12-yard pass to move the ball near the red zone. That set up a 22-yard touchdown pass to Dorian Singer with 45 seconds left in the third to finish off the 12-play, 80-yard drive.
Neither team scored in the fourth quarter.
Utah got the ball back in good field position after forcing a punt thanks to back-to-back tackles for loss.
That drive, though, was the aforementioned possession that stalled inside the Arizona State red zone. From there, the Sun Devils chewed up the clock and drove into Utah territory before giving the Utes the ball back at their own 4 with 1:43 to play.
With no timeouts left, the Utes were able to convert a fourth down on a 28-yard pass to Singer, one play after Rising was dropped for a 12-yard loss on a sack, but Utah never advanced the ball past midfield before the clock ran out.
Star players: Rising, in his return from injury, completed 18 of 26 passes for 203 yards and a touchdown, with no turnovers. Parks had a team-high five catches for 57 yards, while Singer added three receptions for 60 yards and the one score.
Bernard ran for 127 yards on 31 carries, with the short touchdown run.
Junior Tafuna had five tackles, including three tackles for loss.
In a reversal of how Arizona State’s offense operates in real life (more on that in a minute), Sam Leavitt completed 76% of his passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns. His favorite target was Jordyn Tyson, who caught five passes for 88 yards.
Utah helped ASU’s Cam Skattebo to 17 rushing yards.
Key stats: Utah finished with more total yards, 340 to 299.
Both teams had struggles moving the ball on the ground — the Utes ran for 137 yards, though it came on 42 carries, with a 3.3-per carry average. Arizona State, meanwhile, had minus-1 rushing yard, thanks to several Utah tackles for loss.
Utah was 4 of 14 on third down and 4 of 5 on fourth down — though that missed fourth-down attempt came in the fourth quarter and left the Utes without points after driving into the Arizona State red zone.
Arizona State, meanwhile, was 5 of 10 on third down and never went for it on fourth down.
My analysis: The video game was backwards on ASU’s offensive scheme — in the simulation, the Sun Devils relied on their passing attack to move the ball against Utah.
In reality, though, Arizona State is a ground-first offense — the Sun Devils average 218.2 yards per game.
That was the biggest discrepancy in this simulation, though it’s a pretty significant one.